Forum Debate: Has the Chinese Economy Slowed Down Permanently, Temporarily, or It Depends?

Peter Young

About the Event

After China lifted the Covid-19 lockdowns, many people expected a rebound in the Chinese economy. However, that has not materialized yet and there are concerns that the current slowdown will last for some period of time.  

Will the world’s second-largest economy and a critical part of global trade and manufacturing rebound with a strong manufacturing cost position, large investments in technology and the advanced education of millions of students, a potential surge in consumer spending, and continued investments in infrastructure by the government? Or, will high levels of debt, an overbuilt real estate sector, increasing government controls of the economy and technology, a shrinking population, and growing dissatisfaction on the part of those in the 18 to 30 year age bracket stifle growth on a long-term basis?  

The answer to this question is critical not only to China, but to the global economy because of the complex and myriad links between the Chinese economy and the rest of the world. On Thursday, November 16, from 5:00 pm to 6:15 pm Eastern Time, Committee of 100 hosted a public forum debate with three leading experts to shed light on this important topic, followed by a 15-minute Q&A session from the audience.

Professor Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia University argued the “temporary” point of view, Professor Stephen Roach of Yale University argued the “it depends” point of view, and Dan H. Rosen of Rhodium argued the “permanent” point of view. The debate was moderated by Peter Young, a Committee of 100 member and CEO of Young & Partners.

Throughout the event, there was an interactive component where attendees were able to vote. Prior to the debate, attendees indicated their initial position on the issue via a voting mechanism. Then, after the debate has concluded, they indicated their position once again, showing how the debaters have influenced the audiences’ original positions. Attendees also had the opportunity to cast their votes for the speaker they consider to be the “best debater.”

This is a hybrid event. You can choose to attend in person at the Jay Conference Bryant Park (109 W 39th St, New York, NY 10018) or virtually via Zoom. Capacity is limited for in-person attendance.


Stephen Roach, PhD
Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School 

Dr. Stephen Roach has been a member of the Yale faculty since 2010. He was the first senior fellow to join the faculty of Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs at its inception in 2010 and remained in that capacity until 2022; over that period, he was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He joined Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center in 2022. He was formerly Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s Chief Economist for the bulk of his 30-year career at Morgan Stanley.

A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Dr. Roach in a unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics. At Yale, he introduced new courses for undergraduates and graduate students on “The Next China” and “The Lessons of Japan.” Dr. Roach’s current research program focuses on the impacts of the conflict-prone U.S.-China relationship on the broader global economy.

His latest book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale University Press, 2022) examines the ominous trajectory of conflict escalation between the United States and China and provides a unique roadmap for conflict resolution. His 2014 book, Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China explored the risks and opportunities of the world’s most important economic relationship of the 21st century.

Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, Dr. Roach served on the research staff of the Federal Reserve Board and was also a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University.

Dr. Roach is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Investment Committee of the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Economics Advisory Board of the University of Wisconsin, and the Advisory Board of NYU’s Graduate School of Arts and Sciences.


Dan H. Rosen
Partner and Co-Founder, Rhodium Group  

Daniel H. Rosen is the co-founder of Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China.  

Mr. Rosen has worked professionally on China’s domestic economy and global commercial relations since 1992. He is widely recognized for his research on U.S.-China relations and Asian commercial dynamics. He is affiliated with numerous think tanks focused on international economics and is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University.  

From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Adviser for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.  

A native of New York City, Mr. Rosen graduated with distinction from the graduate School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University (MSFS) and with honors in Asian Studies and Economics from the University of Texas, Austin (BA).  

Shang-Jin Wei, PhD
Professor, Columbia University Business School and School of International and Public Affairs  

Dr. Shang-Jin Wei is N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy and Professor of Finance and Economics at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business and School of International and Public Affairs. 

Dr. Wei is a noted scholar on international finance, trade, and the Chinese economy. He was a recipient of the 2019 Contemporary Economics Prize, the Sun Yefang Prize for Distinguished Contributions to Economics (for the invention of the Competitive Saving Motive published in Journal of Political Economy), the Zhang Peifang Prize for Contributions to the Economics of Development (for pioneering work on measurement of global value chains published in American Economic Review), the Pushan Prize for Excellence in Research on the World Economy, the Ann Tse Kai (An Zijian) Research Prize on International Trade, and the Gregory Chow Award for Best Research Paper.

During 2014 – 2016, Dr. Wei served as Chief Economist of Asian Development Bank and Director General of its Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department. He was ADB’s chief spokesperson on economic trends and economic development in Asia, advised ADB’s President on economic development issues, led the bank’s analytical support for regional cooperation fora including ASEAN+3 (China, Japan, and Korea) and APEC, growth strategy diagnostics for developing member countries, as well as research on macroeconomic, financial, labor market, and globalization issues.

Prior to his Columbia appointment in 2007, he was Assistant Director and Chief of Trade and Investment Division at the International Monetary Fund. He was the IMF’s Chief of Mission to Myanmar (Burma) in 2004. He previously held the positions of Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, the New Century Chair in Trade and International Economics at the Brookings Institution, and Advisor at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in economics and MS in finance from the University of California, Berkeley.


Peter Young
CEO and President, Young & Partners  

Peter Young is CEO and President of Young & Partners, a boutique corporate strategy and investment banking firm focused on the life science and chemical industries. He manages the firm and is actively involved in client projects, transactions, and financings. Under his leadership, Young & Partners has established and maintained its position as a highly regarded firm serving the corporate strategy, M&A, restructuring, and financing needs of clients worldwide. He was previously head of industry groups at Salomon Brothers, Schroders, and Lehman Brothers, a senior private equity executive with J.H. Whitney & Co., and a senior member of Bain & Co., a corporate strategy firm.  

Mr. Young received a BA in Economics from Yale, an MS in Accounting from NYU, and an MBA from Harvard Business School where he graduated as a Baker Scholar. He is a CPA and a Chartered Global Management Accountant. He serves on several boards of directors, both corporate and non-profit; and is a board member of Société de Chimie Industrielle, a leading life science and chemical industry non-profit organization; and on the Editorial Advisory Board of Pharmaceutical Executive. He is also a member of Committee of 100.


Thursday, November 16, 2023 @ 5:00 pm – 6:30 pm Eastern Time


Jay Conference Bryant Park (109 W 39th St, New York, NY 10018) & Zoom

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